
photo credit: Gilderic
From a discussion ‘What’s Next for the Environmental Movement in 2011′ at Oxford University 19/01/2011
There’s a good chance that 2010 will go down as the year people stopped caring about climate change.
The statistics on the numbers of people who believe the science are down, Copenhagen was a disaster and, let’s admit it, Cancun a bit of a damp squib. Did anybody see the article in the Guardian last week showing that there’s essentially been a media blackout on climate change related stories?
So nobody cares about climate change, and it’s the economy that’s the big story. People are too busy worrying about their jobs, the cost of living, whether they’re going to be able to afford to finish college or even go to university. They’re concerned about their bus passes, and worried about the NHS.
I actually got an email from a colleague earlier today- there’s a new poll of young people and their political attitudes recently out. The big headline was that the young people polled don’t care about climate change nearly as much as we thought they did.
While that might be shocking, the thing is, there’s not a lot of evidence that climate change was that high on ordinary people’s agendas to begin with. I’ve spent the past couple of months looking at public opinion research over the past 35 years for my thesis and the results are quite interesting. When you look at a list of the issues people say are ‘the most important facing this country’, not once are ‘climate change’ or ‘the environment’ anywhere near the top 5 at any point over the past 35 years.
It’s usually in there somewhere- people say that they care about the environment in the same way that they care about puppies. The fact is, though bird flu has been at #1 on several occasions whilst neither climate change nor the environment ever have. Support for action on climate change is widespread, but it’s soft as hell. It’s a back of the mind priority, one that’s there, but which doesn’t routinely connect with most people’s attitudes, priorities and behaviour.
That’s even more true at the international level. A World away from our meetings, our campaigns, our middle class guilt, direct action and all the other things we do as environmentalists, the rest of the World is building on a scale bigger than we can possibly imagine.
New coal power stations go online every week, there are cities in China bigger than London whose names we haven’t even heard of. That country as a whole doubled the amount of energy it consumed between 2000 and 2009, and that’s set to grow by another 75 percent by 2035.
Of course these countries are also investing in renewables, and at a far higher rate than any of the West and that’s definitely a good thing. But it’s not necessarily because they consider climate change a particular priority. It’s because they need all the energy they can get to lift their people out of poverty, and they’ll get it from wherever they possibly can.
Environmentalism has hit a wall because in 2010, and for much of the past few decades, we’ve asked the World to choose between being better off and being good as if the two were mutually exclusive.
The world chose being better off.
If we step back from our environmentalist selves and think about our basic human instincts, that’s hardly surprising. As humans, we have an amazing capacity for empathy, for altruism, for the bigger picture- but ultimately, our own immediate physical needs come first.
It’s what social scientists call post-materialism. People’s concern for what they see as bigger picture issues like climate change, civil liberties and self-expression only really come to the fore after they become physically and materially secure.
That’s why environmentalists tend to be disproportionately middle class, why there’s a strong correlation between levels of environmental activism in a country and the wealth of its population. It’s why the radicalism of the 1960s was built on the back of the affluence of the 1950s.
So right now, we are staring over the edge.
We can play Pollyanna for as long as we like, but at the end of the day, environmentalists are failing to stop climate change and the clock. keeps. ticking. For all our fantastic achievements, environmentalism has failed.
Where does that leave us? The topic of today’s discussion is ‘the future of environmentalism’. When it comes to climate change at least, my somewhat controversial answer is that environmentalism doesn’t have a future. We need something new. Something bigger. Something more equal to the task.
What would this new, post-environmental politics look like? It’ll be great to hear your thoughts in just a few minutes’ time. But I’d like to share with you some of my thoughts, which I began in Ross’ film which you just saw.
The first change that needs to happen is that we need to abandon a politics of limits in favour of a politics of possibility. Far too often, having discussed a problem, we decide that the solution is to ban something. To reduce, to restrain- to pull back. We tell people to eat less meat, fly fewer planes, buy less stuff, ban plastic bags, don’t shop in this store, don’t say this, and don’t think that. And we publish books with appealing titles such as ‘’Our Final Hour”, “The Revenge of Gaia”, “The Long Emergency”, and “An Inconvenient Truth”.
This is what we could call the politics of limits. It’s the idea that reduces the problems we face into a battle between two polar opposites- Nature vs. Humanity. Nature is perfect, man has fallen from nature and, for nature to be restored, Man must stop doing whatever nasty things it is doing. It essentially views humanity as the problem whose behaviour must be curtailed for the greater good.
What I’m suggesting is that we need to move towards a worldview that sees humanity as part of nature, rather than opposed to it.
The truth is, as Nordhaus and Shellenberger put it [Google Books]:
“We are neither a cancer on, nor the stewards for, planet Earth. We are neither destined to go extinct, not destined to live in harmony. Rather, we are the first species to have any control whatsoever over how we evolve.”
We face a choice. An opportunity about where humanity will go over the next 200 years. It’s a choice which asks us to embrace a politics of possibility. It’s the kind of politics which believes that the way we solve the great problems of today is not by limiting human power, creativity, ambition and aspiration, but by unleashing them on a scale never seen before.
It’s the kind of politics which sells dreams rather than nightmares, opportunities rather than limits. It’s the kind of approach which calls on leaders of the nations not to stand around at the UNFCCC, wringing their hands deciding who will jump first and ‘take one for the team’, but rather an approach to the issue which sees the nations of the World racing against one another to decarbonise their economies and to reap the economic and technological benefits of being the first to do so.
In that respect, the young and sprightly International Renewable Energy Agency seems to offer far more possibility than the zombie-ridden UNFCCC bandwagon that has been rolling along in nowhere in particular for over 20 years now.
We need to awake the same sense of opportunity, belief in human enterprise and bare-faced peaceful competition that took mankind from the edge of orbit onto the surface of the moon in less than 10 years.
It’s already happening in the US. There’s a hugely exciting project over there called the Apollo Alliance, which is a coalition of environmental groups, trade unions and business leaders from both sides of the deep political divide who have published a roadmap for unprecedented investment in energy research and infrastructure that would decarbonise the US electricity supply using renewables in just 15 years. When Obama was planning his economic stimulus package in 2008 they were there with a plan, ready to go, and as a result, played a key part in shaping it.
Whether or not you agree with how they did it, the French have already shown that change on this scale can happen. In the space of 15 years, following the oil crisis in the early 1970s, France effectively decarbonised its electricity grid through a huge programme of nuclear construction. It’s that scale of ambition that we need to see, and you drive that ambition by becoming a movement of opportunities and ideas, not limits.
So finally before opening it up and letting the rest of you get your thoughts in, I want to close with some thoughts about how we make all this real to people. As I mentioned with the polling at the beginning, nobody cares about climate change as a standalone issue.
The way we do it, I think, is that we’ve got to break out of the yearly cycle of petitions and celebrity endorsements, and the ‘big’ campaigns that only those of us in the World of campaigning ever heard about, and ‘humorous’ stunts where only the organisers understand the joke.
We’ve also got to stop asking ourselves why more people aren’t joining our movement. Why should they? Why shouldn’t we come to them and talk to them about the issues that actually do keep them up at night?
One of those issues is almost certainly energy, which is of course directly linked to climate change. It’s the price of filling the car, the price of heating your home. Another one, of course, is jobs and employment. What about national security? That’s been a big one over the past decade, especially amongst those on the political right.
Building on those concerns and “using your tools to fix their car”, as the Clinton campaign put it, we could tell an entirely different, much more compelling, story of possibility.
How about a story that empathises with people worried about high petrol costs and explains how things could be better? Or one that listens to people’s concerns about Gran trying to keep warm this winter in the midst of yo-yoing oil prices? What about telling the story of the former miner in South Wales with black lung disease from a life down the coal mine, or the story of regions of the World torn apart by oil conflicts and of communities devastated by oil spills?
But there’s also another half of the story that needs to be told. It’s the story of the workers at the newly-opened wind turbine factory who used to be unemployed, of communities turned around. Of state-of-the-art, high-speed rail forever healing the north-south divide that scars this country.
Then you could take it up a gear with the story of a foreign policy guided by our principles rather than our energy needs, and of a competitive, proud and prosperous British economy- an economy that relies on nothing but the wind that blows across our land and the waves that crash against our shores. Now that’s a story! – an epic story.
It’s a post-environmental story, one that can appeal to anyone, anywhere, one that you don’t have to be an environmentalist to buy into. A story of hope rather than fear, of possibilities rather than limits, a story that rallies the hope, ambition and aspirations in all of us for a better world.